A Trump Presidency - What Now Africa?

The clarion call of former President Donald Trump, the Republican party presidential candidate in the forthcoming 2024 US general elections, has been ‘America First.’  What does this mean for Africa, its 55 countries, and its 1.4 billion population?  The answer to this question should have already been discussed at least a year ago by Africa’s diplomats and their political analysts, and strategic options should be prepared and put in place. 

When a country with an economy the size of the United States goes to the polls in a world where national economies are interlocked, other nations must be alert. The United States of America is more than a leading economic nation it is also a major player at the forefront of other geo-political forces that can have a huge impact on African countries.  There are linkages between America’s domestic policies and its international relationships.  The truth of John Donne’s words is applicable here,

‘No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.’

This is as true for the United States of America as it is for African countries, irrespective of their distance from each other.

 ‘America First’ is not just political platitudes this is an articulation of the Project 2025 vision carried out by the Heritage Foundation, a Republican political think tank.  Furthermore, when the term ‘America First’ is used, we on the continent of Africa must recognize this is not inclusive of all residents and citizens of America. In other words, we need to discern that the term and the policies that support it are not designed to bring benefit or prosperity to African Americans, Nigerian Americans, Haitian Americans, or Caribbean Americans.

The previous Trump Administration and its Republican political gurus have systematically defaulted on upholding the political rights of people of color in America.  They have pushed back on many of the Obama administration laws and have reversed several of the Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion programs.  Therefore, it does not require any stretch of the imagination or even biblical prophetic insight to conclude that if you don’t love the brother and sister who you can see, how will you love those you cannot see?

So, the ball should be firmly in Africa’s court. African countries will need to become much more robust in defense of their citizens abroad and at home. Here are four areas for which Africa’s interests will be tried and tested by a Republican administration:

1. Immigration
2. Trade Protectionism
3. Environmental Protection
4. Multilateral Organising and Peace-Making

Immigration

We can expect an increase in moves by the Republican party to crack down on immigration into the United States of America.  This would include a reduction in immigration quotas and deportation of undocumented migrants. 

Trade Protectionism

We can anticipate that Trump’s administration will go after China and its dominance of trade in Africa. We can, therefore, expect bullying tactics to be used to make African countries comply. So, a new Cold War could emerge that will be fought out in African countries.

Environmental Protection

We are in doubt that President-Elect Donald Trump is hostile to environmental measures as he understands these as undermining the United States of American companies’ competitiveness. He will embolden American companies to invest in and open new industrial projects with little environmental restrictions.  Green policies will be placed on a back burner, and climate crisis talks will be downgraded on the international scene.  So, we should not be looking for any environmental funds to negate ‘Loss and Damage’ from America.

Multilateralism and Peace Building

President-Elect Donald Trump, during his first stint in the Oval Office, cut billions of dollars from international development aid and reduced funding for diplomacy and humanitarian assistance to the African continent. His dislike for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, World Bank, World Trade Organisation, and the World Health Organization was clear to see.

It is unlikely that the US will do much to address the conflicts tearing apart the African continent, be that in the Sudan or the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Put differently, American taxpayers’ money will be withdrawn from countries that are not seen to embrace American values and interests. The possibility even exists that military intervention may be considered an option, especially where African countries may be pushing for membership of BRICS and de-dollarisation.

What now, Africa? Let us not for one moment think that Africa is a helpless and hopeless situation. A Trump presidency should be seen in strategic terms. It should become a catalyst for a wiser, stronger, and more autonomous Africa. Let us be quite clear Africa is not in the same position it was in during the first iteration of Trump’s presidency. Africa’s strategic significance has grown, while the United States of America’s relative influence on the continent has declined.  Africa has the minerals, energy, diplomatic, and human resources that America needs. Its challenge is to ensure it has the political and ethical will and fortitude required to equip and develop its people for national, continental, and international leadership.

African governments and organisations will have to develop strategies that emphasize their unity.  Strategies that unite in collaborating towards goals of building upon its strengths and addressing intentionally its weaknesses. Its interests and that of its growing and youthful population will be best served by engaging in partnerships that are mutually beneficial and lead towards greater political and financial autonomy and national accountability.

Critical to this long-term strategic outlook will be the strengthening of the African Union and the operationalization of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement. African countries will have to give a higher priority to a long-term strategy.  Its most learned diplomats will have to create a new compact with the United States of America. One that is cognisant that we are dealing with an unconventional, erratic and vengeful president.

African countries should also take this opportunity to make themselves more attractive to the business and professional classes in the African Diaspora. This entails putting in place political, legislative, economic, and social protections for persons who would wish to take their skills and resources to a less hostile environment.